Trump Would Be Richer If He Had Just Invested His Inheritance Into

Trump critics have long claimed that if the former president had simply taken the money his father gave him, stuck it in the S&P 500 and watched the money appreciate over time, he’d be far richer. But for years, those critics were wrong. In fact, Trump outperformed the market for much of his life, developing some great buildings, lucking out on a couple of other projects, and capitalizing on a knack for marketing.

But markets change, and so do fortunes—especially in times of upheaval. Since U.S. equities crashed in the early days of the pandemic, they have gone on a stunning run, largely thanks to the growth of big technology companies. Trump’s fortune also plunged at the outset of the pandemic, but his real estate empire, concentrated in urban office buildings, hotels and storefronts, hasn’t come roaring back. The result is that the oft-repeated, long-false claim that Trump would have been richer if he’d just stuck his inheritance in the S&P 500 has—finally—turned into truth. As of today, Trump would be an estimated $400 million richer if he had just put his father’s money in the index.

TRUMP VERSUS THE S&P 500

Forbes estimates the size of Donald Trump’s fortune twice a year, as represented by the green bars. Before the pandemic, Trump was worth far more than what he would have been if he had put his father’s funds into the S&P 500, a hypothetical amount symbolized by the black line cutting through the bars. After Covid struck, however, Trump’s business deflated while the market soared, meaning Trump would now be richer if he had just invested it all in the S&P 500.

In order to fairly measure Trump against the S&P 500, you need to answer three questions: how much the former president received from his dad, when he received that money, and what he is worth now. Around 2016, several outlets tried to make the comparison without knowing those answers, leading to bad guesses that fueled years of inaccurate speculation. On Oct. 2, 2018, the New York Times clarified the picture, addressing the first two questions with a single line buried inside a 13,000-word expose on the tax returns of Fred Trump, Donald’s dad. “Here is what can be said with certainty,” the article stated. “Had [Donald] Trump done nothing but invest the money his father gave him in an index fund that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500, he would be worth $1.96 billion today.”

At the time, Forbes estimated that Trump was worth $3.1 billion. In other words, despite all of the speculation to the contrary, he had apparently outperformed the market index by about $1 billion, as of 2018. That accomplishment didn’t get anywhere near as much coverage as the previous suggestions that Trump had underperformed the market.

Trump continued to stay comfortably ahead of the S&P 500 until last year, when Covid turned the world upside down. The stock market tanked, and Trump personally lost an estimated $1 billion in a matter of weeks. After the…