Last December, after beating the S&P 500 index five years in a row, I wrote, “This kind of streak isn’t supposed to happen, and readers should be warned that there’s no guarantee it will continue.”
Well, it’s over. My annual selections for 2021 performed just fine, with an average return of 17.4%, but the S&P did much better, gaining 35.8%. (Returns and data throughout the story are through Nov. 5.)
Since 1993, I have offered a list of 10 stocks for the year ahead. Nine are culled from the choices of experts I trust, and I include one of my own. For 2021, I’m happy to say, my pick was the biggest winner: ONEOK (OKE), the 115-year-old natural gas pipeline company, which benefited from the rise in petroleum prices and was up 139.9%.
I’ll get to my choice for 2022 at the end. Let’s start with one from the Value Line Investment Survey, a font of succinct research that has a strong forecasting record as well. My strategy is to pick from stocks that Value Line rates tops (“1”) for both timeliness and safety. That list right now is short: nine companies, including obvious ones like Apple (AAPL) and Visa (V).
The outlier is T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), the Baltimore-based asset manager, whose earnings have risen each year since 2009 despite the growing popularity of low-cost index funds. Value Line notes that “shares have staged a dramatic advance over the past year. However, our projections suggest … worthwhile appreciation potential for the next 3 to 5 years.”
Parnassus Endeavor (PARWX), a socially responsible fund – one that invests with an eye toward environmental, social and governance (ESG) measures, has returned a sparkling annual average of 18.3% over the past 10 years. In 2021, Jerome Dodson stepped back from managing Endeavor and other Parnassus funds, but he’s still a guiding force at the firm he founded 35 years ago. My picks from the portfolio for 2019 and 2020 were microchip companies that scored average gains of nearly 100%.
For 2022, I like PepsiCo (PEP), which Billy Hwan, the fund’s new solo manager, acquired for the first time in July. In addition to its soft drinks, the company has such respected brands as Lay’s, Quaker and Gatorade. Revenues have risen consistently, and PepsiCo may be able to benefit from general inflation with aggressive price increases.
Another big winner in 2021 came from Dan Abramowitz, of Hillson Financial Management in Rockville, Maryland, who is my go-to expert in smaller companies. His choice was IEC Electronics, which was purchased by Creation Technologies in October for 53% more than the stock’s price when I put it on the list, noting, “IEC is also a potential takeover target.”
For 2022, Dan recommends DXC Technology (DXC), a midsize information technology company based in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. It is in the midst of a turnaround, Dan writes, “yet we are still in the early innings here.” Profits are improving, but the stock “is valued at under 10 times current fiscal year earnings.”
A few…