Gloomy Netflix forecast erases much of stock’s pandemic gains

LOS ANGELES, Jan 20 (Reuters) – Netflix Inc dashed hopes for a quick rebound after forecasting weak first-quarter subscriber growth on Thursday, sending shares sinking nearly 20% and wiping away most of its remaining pandemic-fueled gains from 2020.

The world’s largest streaming service projected it would add 2.5 million customers from January through March, less than half of the 5.9 million analysts had forecast, according to Refinitiv IBES data.

Netflix tempered its growth expectations, citing the late arrival of anticipated content, such as the second season of “Bridgerton” and the Ryan Reynolds time-travel movie “The Adam Project.”

Shares of Netflix plummeted nearly 20% to $408.13 in after-hours trading. Competitor Walt Disney Co (DIS.N), which has staked its future on building a strong streaming business, saw its shares sink 4%. Streaming device Roku Inc (ROKU.O) fell 5%.

Nasdaq futures dropped almost 1%, showing traders expect the tech-heavy index to open lower on Friday.

Netflix added 8.3 million customers from October to December, when it released a heavy lineup of new programming including the star-studded movies “Red Notice” and “Don’t Look Up” and a new season of “The Witcher.” Industry analysts had projected 8.4 million.

The company’s global subscriber total at the end of 2021 reached 221.8 million.

In a letter to shareholders, Netflix said it believed the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and economic hardships in several parts of the world like Latin America may have kept subscriber growth from rebounding to levels seen before the pandemic.

COVID “created a lot of bumpiness” that made it hard to project subscriber numbers, “but all the fundamentals of the business are pretty solid,” Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos said in a post-earnings video interview.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.33, crushing analyst consensus estimates of 82 cents. Revenue hit $7.71 billion, in line with estimates.

Netflix last week raised prices in its biggest market, the United States and Canada, where analysts say growth is stagnating, and is now looking for growth overseas.

The company rode a roller coaster during the pandemic, with steep growth early in 2020 when people were staying home and movie theaters were closed, followed by a slowdown in 2021. Netflix picked up more than 36 million customers in 2020, and 18.2 million in 2021.

Netflix’s subscriber growth in 2022 had been expected to stabilize and return to the pace logged before the pandemic, when it added 27.9 million subscribers in 2019, analysts say. The company’s upcoming slate includes new installments of “Ozark” and “Stranger Things” and a three-part Kanye West documentary.

“The pandemic lockdowns pulled forward tons of demand and it is taking longer than expected to normalize,” said Pivotal Research…