As Fourth of July travel chaos looms, experts are warning that a combination of factors including pilot shortages, the climate crisis and even the rise of drones means the situation is unlikely to get better soon.
Over the Memorial Day and Juneteenth holiday weekends more than 3,000 flights were canceled and more than 19,000 were delayed. About 1,800 flights have been canceled so far this week, according to the Hill.
Travelers can expect yet more difficulties this weekend – and more to come, said airline industry expert Robert Mann.
“It’s a complicated situation, and nobody has clean hands except the customers who bought tickets thinking they were going on vacation or flying for business,” said Mann.
The airlines received $54bn in relief funds during the pandemic and politicians including the transportation secretary, Pete Buttigieg, and Senator Bernie Sanders have questioned why they have been so ill-prepared for the post-pandemic travel boom. Sanders is calling for fines to be imposed.
Despite promises to keep staff in return for the bailouts, airlines have laid off thousands of workers and pilot shortages are often described as the primary reason for recent issues.
There are structural and regulatory reasons for the shortages too. Pilots are not being trained and certified in the numbers they once were, and many are approaching mandatory retirement age, already pushed from 60 to 65, a figure that could now be pushed higher still. Another issue is that the military is not producing pilots in the numbers it once did, in part because of the increasing use of drones and other strategic decisions.
Regulatory changes have played a part too. After Colgan Airlines Flight 3407 crashed over Buffalo in 2009, killing 49 people, Congress raised the number of flight hours required for pilot certification from 250 hours to 1,500 hours, a move that has been criticized by some airline executives.
“The bottom line is that we’re not producing as many pilots as we did in the 70s and 80s when many were coming out of the service post-Vietnam,” Mann said. “And how do you get to 1,500 hours? Everyone is looking for a shortcut.”
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) limits on monthly flying hours are also likely to add to shortages. The holiday falls at the end of June, meaning that many pilots may have already maximized their weekly or monthly quotas. Airlines have issued calls for volunteer pilots, offering in some cases triple pay.
On top of this, airlines that laid-off pilots and staff during the pandemic, thinking that they could rehire new ones for less when needed, and retired older planes, resulting in new training requirements for newer planes.
But training resources, too, are stretched. “So you get rid of entire fleets, and now entire crews have to be retrained,” said Mann. “Retire one senior pilot and you create six or seven training events.”
Compounding pilot shortage is a lack of airport staff – whether ground crew, Transportation…
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