Lula’s victory in Brazil sparks optimism on climate change

The narrow win by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the Brazilian presidential election marks a key turning point on environmental issues, analysts say. 

Da Silva, commonly known as Lula, took 50.9% of the second round vote to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s 49.1%, according to Brazil’s election authority. 

The 77-year-old leftist campaigned on policies including exempting the lowest earners from income tax, raising the minimum wage and upping investment in public services to create new jobs. He has vowed to reduce poverty and boost economic growth, citing his record of doing so when he served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010.

The remarkable political return comes after he was jailed in 2017 on money laundering and corruption charges that were overturned in 2019.

“It’s a significant change, I can’t emphasize how much things will be different in this country with Lula’s election,” James Green, professor of Latin American History at Brown University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday, citing planned increases in welfare provision, more public-inclusive decision making, and the return of a “government of transparency.”

It also, Green said, “means a return to policies to save the Amazon.” As well as containing 25% of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity, the Amazon plays a crucial global role through storing billions of tons of carbon and releasing billions of tons of water each year.

Lula used his victory address to pledge to combat climate change and deforestation — issues observers say have not just been sidelined but severely worsened under Bolsonaro’s tenure.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rose to an all-time high in the first half of 2022 and was 80% higher than the same period in 2018, the year before Bolsonaro took office, according to a report by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute.

Bolsonaro has been criticized for enabling the proliferation of illegal activity in Brazilian rainforests — including land grabs and violence against indigenous people and campaigners — through funding cuts to on-the-ground law enforcement; slashing the national environment agency’s budget; seeking to overturn environmental regulations; approving thousands of new pesticides; and appeasing the country’s powerful agricultural businesses by failing to act on encroachment onto protected lands.

Brazil has also failed to detail plans to cut carbon emissions in line with international agreements, according to Human Rights Watch, and its emissions from agriculture and cattle-raising have risen to the highest level on record.

Bolsonaro’s office was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC. Bolsonaro has previously said he was taking action to protect the rainforest; but he has also defended the expansion of mining…