Not a great setup. There are too many articles and postings about how we are overdoing artificial intelligence, and how there’s not enough substance to justify recent market moves. There’s no question that the market, particularly the Nasdaq , has rallied endlessly on what amounts to the same information: Nvidia (NVDA) makes great cards; Adobe ‘s (ADBE) putting them to use; so is Meta Platforms (META) but we don’t know how; as are Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet ‘s (GOOGL) Google and, most importantly, Oracle (ORCL); but don’t forget Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MVRL). That’s worrisome, indeed. That’s why I am approaching this shortened week with a little trepidation There’s really nothing new that I can see short of analyst meetings from Samsara (IOT) and MongoDB (MDB), both loved, but both a little abstruse. They can’t move the needle. So, it seems to me this is the test week. Research right now is of no hope whatsoever. If a stock is up, we get price target boosts. If it is down, we get cuts. Nothing original, nothing against the grain. That’s been a major source of sustenance for a while now, but I think that we have had enough of it so perhaps that causes a pause. No matter, I think we get a pause, and we still don’t have a replacement for the AI theme. Do we go health care following President Joe Biden’s first campaign rally? Getting tougher. Financials ahead of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation penalties? Possibly, and a bunch of regional banks seem interesting. Have you seen that yield and price-to-earnings multiple on Truist, a truly good regional bank? The consumer-packaged-goods segment has been written off as past tense : Campbell ‘s (CPB) last quarter may be the template. Retail’s tough as nails: only Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) seem to pass muster. Transports? You are on your own because I think the Street is anxious to end the spell of revenge travel. How many times can you re-recommend the cruise ships? The industrials have been going up on the same thing for weeks now – a prospective Chinese stimulus plan that has not yet arrived and, perhaps, the Democrats’ infrastructure plan. I am not going to hide in oil and gas because I will be discovered in plain sight. Of course, there’s some hyperbole here, and heaven knows I am given to it. Still, I am worried about this week because for the first time in a bit I think we need to do some serious digesting. No, I just feel we have come to the point where I have more ideas to sell than buy. When I scan the market, I see many charts that are extended where, even though I like them, I wouldn’t be comfortable buying them. I am mindful that a stock like that of Adobe had a huge move into an excellent quarter and then raced up the hill even more on the numbers, supercharged by AI. That in itself is pretty amazing. But then, out of nowhere, sellers emerged and reversed much of the move. There’s some real fluff in the tape. I see fluff in a lot of places, maybe all but in the…
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